COP29: Easier Said Than Done

Climate change is everywhere and there is no denying it. What was once a topic of debatable significance,

is now of global urgency. Among several conflicts and geopolitical clashes, one might even argue that the fight against climate change is part of the last strings holding multilateralism. Hence, the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) - the UN Climate Change Conference - is fundamental for ensuring cooperation and sustainable development. 

This year, COP29 occurred in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11th to the 22nd. All States Parties to the Convention were represented to review the implementation of the Convention and any other document the supreme decision-making body decided to adopt.

Although COP is central to uniting forces from all parts of society and the globe to combat climate change, discussions appear regarding its effectiveness. Several actors identify and worry about the hardships involving the negotiation of new measures and multilateral agreements, as well as reviewing the Parties’ progress in the Paris Agreement - a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted by 196 Parties at the COP21 in Paris in 2015.

The European Union at COP29

Nonetheless, COP29 emerged promising to deliver “groundbreaking” decisions. Regarding the European Union, on October 14th, the Council approved the conclusions that served as the EU’s general negotiating position for COP29: “the EU will support an effective, achievable and ambitious global goal on climate finance and will call for ambitious climate plans in order to keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C within reach.” 

Among these recent efforts, the EU has shown great commitment to addressing climate change in the Eastern partner countries by pursuing one of the five long-term objectives of the Eastern Partnership policy beyond 2020: “Together towards environmental and climate resilience.” The EU has declared it will support countries to fulfill their contributions to the Paris Agreement by modernizing their economies, reducing their carbon footprints, and moving towards climate neutrality. These commitments have been pursued through several initiatives, including funding various regional programs working across the countries of the Eastern Partnership, such as the EU4ClimateResilience and EU4Environment Green Economy. 

Besides being essential for reinforcing such agendas, COP29 also promised to be revolutionary for focusing on climate finance.

Picture from unsplash

The “Finance COP”

The conference emphasized the fundamental role of finance in guaranteeing effective solutions to climate change, opening various spaces of discussion for civil organizations, non-profits, companies, intergovernmental bodies, and governments to set the next steps guiding progress in climate finance. One of the first initiatives was to push for a consensus on carbon markets, accompanied by the announcement that new international carbon market standards are being finalized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

McKinsey Sustainability, for example, was present at COP29 and organized a series of events to discuss climate finance and investing space. Conversations led experts to recognize that capital allocation and pricing are critical levers to enable both climate mitigation and climate adaptation. Furthermore, the possibility of instituting voluntary carbon markets, conditional on their growth compared to today, could be useful to decrease part of the climate financing gap. 

However, being the “finance COP” seems easier said than done. On the last day of the conference, with increasing pressure from all sides, setbacks continued to prevent parties from reaching an agreement regarding the drafting of a new deal. The ultimate goal was a new global settlement on climate finance to support developing countries to shift to low-carbon economies and deal with the impacts of climate change. With the clock ticking, nevertheless, the almost-final drafts published one day before the end of COP29, covering all the main aspects of this possible deal, were far from settled.

Picture from unsplash

The parties still had not agreed on a “new collective quantified goal (NCQG)” (as the amount of money developing countries can expect in climate finance with some part coming from rich world governments). Economists had pointed out that developing countries should receive at least $1tn a year by 2030 in climate finance, but, instead of a clear number, the NCQG text included an “X”. This symbolizes the lack of compromise between “extreme positions.”

Problems with the published text also involve the section dedicated to “mitigation” - the curbing of greenhouse gas emissions. Last year, at COP28 held in Dubai, countries had agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels” despite opposition from countries like Saudi Arabia who favored treating it as an “option” instead of a goal. In this sense, COP29 seems like a step back, in which this commitment is absent from the “mitigation” text.

Uncertainty Underlying Hope

It is hard to limit the analysis of COP29’s effectiveness by checking off goals like a supermarket list. The conference presented thousands of opportunities to discuss the most pressing issues and for different sectors of society to interact with each other, giving voice to often misrepresented groups. Despite several setbacks, it also proved effective in pushing governments to adopt new measures to fight climate change. 

The European Union, for example, released its first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) at COP29, providing information on the progress towards reaching the 2030 target and on the effects of EU climate policies. The BTRs support the implementation of the Paris Agreement and demonstrate the EU’s commitment to transparency, accountability, and climate ambition. 

In spite of these advancements, it is fundamental to recognize the shortcomings of COP29 and hold actors accountable. This is the only way to ensure continuous and further support for mitigating climate change. Echoing the words of UN Secretary-General António Guterres hours before the end of COP29, “failure is not an option.” 

The issues unpacked during this period cannot be wrapped up alongside COP29. If every loose point is left to resurge only in the following year, then all successive COPs will claim to be “revolutionary.” But the world screams for immediate action and continuous commitment.  

Collective hope grasps the translation of COP29’s promise of being “groundbreaking” into a final concrete agreement.