Trump and Europe: a Fragile Alliance Amid Protectionism and Geopolitical Challenges

The re-election of Donald Trump highlights the uncertain future of transatlantic relations: from NATO to the economy, Europe is compelled to reinvent itself.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has brought uncertainty to the future of transatlantic relations, painting a complex picture of challenges, tensions, and potential opportunities. His pungent rhetoric predicts a future relationship destined to swing between cooperation and confrontation.

During his campaign, Trump did not hold back and repeatedly accused the EU of engaging in unfair trade practices. During his speech at the prestigious Economic Club of Chicago, he prompted punitive tariffs of up to 2000% on European products, once again underlining his strong determination on the protection of domestic industries.

“If I’m leading this country as president, I will impose tariffs of 100, 200, or even 2,000%. They won’t sell a single car in the United States because we will not destroy our country”, Trump declared in an interview reported by the International Business Times. He added that tariffs are “protection for the companies we have here and those that are coming,” emphasizing his goal of pressuring multinationals to build factories within the United States.

According to the newly elected president, this strategy should be implemented in order to beat the competition from foreign countries like Mexico, which is attracting investments for automotive manufacturing plants.

“China is building enormous factories in Mexico to sell cars to the U.S. with all the advantages and none of the disadvantages”, he noted. However, these tariff policies have drawn criticism: economic experts, including John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief of Bloomberg News and moderator of the interview during which Trump made that statement, have remarked that the benefits of such measures would be limited compared to their costs.

This approach, analyzed in detail by the Financial Times, has raised global concerns, particularly in the automotive sector. A recent article highlighted how automakers such as GM, Ford, and Stellantis could suffer significant impacts from 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. According to the British publication, these tariffs risk disrupting global supply chains, considering that a greater portion of vehicles sold in the U.S. are imported from these countries.

But the repercussions extend further. The Financial Times shed light on Germany’s fears about Trump’s tariffs threat, which could negatively affect German exports, a pillar of the country’s economic fabric. These protectionist policies could potentially triggering a new phase of trade tensions, resulting in destabilizing effects on the global economy.

On the security front, NATO has once again taken center stage, but not for the right reasons. Trump has declared his will to “fundamentally reassess the alliance”, sparking anxiety among European partners. For a continent that has relied on American military expenditure and protection for decades, these words ring as an unpleasant and unwanted wake-up call.

In this already uncertain context, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposal to place Ukrainian territories under NATO protection - modeled on Germany’s suggestion of partial membership that excludes occupied territories - has generated significant tensions. The Kremlin has labeled it an “unacceptable provocation”, deeming it a dangerous escalation. The plan risks worsening relations with Moscow and deepening internal divisions within NATO, already strained by the U.S.’s ambiguous stance under Trump. Should the U.S. disengage further, Ukraine would find itself even more vulnerable.

Trade ministers have initiated discussions to develop defensive measures in order to respond to U.S. protectionist policies. Meanwhile, French President Macron has renewed his call for a more autonomous Europe, capable of facing future challenges and issues independently. His vision of a more united and cohesive continent is not only a response to Trump’s policies but also a strong signal to international partners and enemy countries. A more robust Europe would also be a critical ally for Ukraine, especially if Zelensky’s strategy and intentions will face obstacles or indifference from the newly elected government in Washington.

The U.S. president’s announced policies could deeply shake the European economy. Tariffs levied on sectors of critical strategic importance such as automotive and agriculture threaten to undermine exports, and a weakened NATO would force the European Union to reorganize its defense strategies, jeopardizing the feasibility of these projects and hypothetically unsettling national budgets.

But in the midst of all this, we can see glimpses of opportunity. Donald Trump’s reelection could present a chance for the European Union to consolidate its compactness and redefine its role and image on the world stage. A stronger European Union would be a more credible partner and a key player in ensuring international stability.

Faced with a more unpredictable America and an increasingly aggressive Russia, Europe must prove it is ready to respond with pragmatism and strategic vision. The challenges are significant, but so are the opportunities to forge a new global equilibrium where Ukraine’s fate is intertwined with the future of transatlantic relations.